Quick update on EGPT – The Egyptian market has been closed for the past month – Over this time market officials have set a half dozen or so reopen dates only to push them back each time – The latest is that we won’t reopen until the new prime minister is able to meet with market officials – The real concern is that the market is going to get hammered when it finally does reopen (and it will). This is opposite my original hypothesis that the market was trading at a depressed level and would weather Mubarak’s disposal or crack down on the protesters.

EGPT has actually moved up slightly over the last month but I attribute this more to the fund closing new share issues until the underlying market reopens versus actual optimism in the Egyptian exchange. I’d short the ETF at its current price, but because the fund is closed it’s impossible to borrow shares to do this. The funds trading at a 20% premium to its net asset value and I expect the realistic % to be even higher given the difficulty in pricing the Egyptian shares. Once the underlying market reopens EGPT will have to reprice based on the NAV of its holdings which are expected to be significantly lower. If you’re currently on it I’d suggest getting off prior to the Egyptian market reopening.

If not, I’d take a wait and see approach until we get an open. I’m keeping my eye on other Middle Eastern funds – GAF and TRAMX specifically – but I am not making any moves as of yet. The situation has continued to deteriorate in ways that were unexpected (at least by me) with protests gaining steam in relatively stable and open countries like Bahrain, Oman, Morocco – and of course others that impact global markets less like Libya, Yemen, Iran, and Iraq.

I’ll keep you updated on any moves I make - and even if we don’t get the opportunity to make some $ on these markets uncertainty and turmoil we’re getting to watch a pretty spectacular show. Enjoy!