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Election Recap & Moving Forward

8 November 2010 410 views No Comment

The projected wave election struck as the GOP picked up six Senate seats and sixty House seats. Turnout spiked to 42% – far higher than the 37% in 2002 and 2006, and the 39% needed for Republicans to retake the Congress in 1994.

An equally significant story was the Republican’s ability to gain control of 19 state-legislatures. With Congressional redistricting set to begin, Republicans will have a significant advantage to retain or redraw favorable districts. In addition, California’s passage of Proposition 20 will improve competition and could assist in Republican pick-ups. Only 1 of the 54 California seats changed hands in this cycle – a woeful indictment of the gerrymandered nature of each district.

The narrative that Sarah Palin emerged favorably for a 2012 Presidential run strikes me as false. She faced embarrassing losses in Delaware, Nevada, Alaska, and Colorado – costing Republicans 3 Senate seats – whereas victories in Pennsylvania and Florida would have occurred without her support. At best her victories in the Gubernatorial races in Iowa, South Carolina and New Mexico, and her Senatorial victories in New Hampshire and Kentucky demonstrate that she retains clout and should assist her organization and outreach in early primary states.

Obama’s response to the Democrats defeat was disappointing as he blamed the results on the economy and a failure to communicate as opposed to unpopular polices. As I wrote in my election preview, the Administration does have a problem with message. However, the problem is sticking to- and driving home- its message, rather than the failure to communicate the benefits of unpopular programs and policy. With no White House shake-up expected, it will be critical for the Administration to pivot away from blaming the economy (or the previous Administration) and at least privately recognize that its policies were strongly rejected by the electorate.

Even more troubling to Obama is the return of Nancy Pelosi. While Pelosi proved competent in passing both the Health Care and Financial Reform legislation, she also subjected her members to a pointless and costly vote on a Cap and Trade bill that had no chance of passage in the Senate. The divisions between the Progressive wing of the Democrat Party and what’s left of the Blue Dogs (24 were voted out of office) will spill into the public. While the Obama, Pelosi, and Reid troika may have survived they will continue to serve as a lightening rod for Republicans and Independents and will present the Democrats with problems come 2012.

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